Bayesian Theory

By José M. Bernardo, Adrian F. M. Smith,
Publisher: Wiley
Number Of Pages: 586
Publication Date: 1994-01-15
Sales Rank: 1239899
ISBN / ASIN: 0471924164
EAN: 9780471924166
Binding: Hardcover
Manufacturer: Wiley
Studio: Wiley
Average Rating: 4
Recent books in the Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics Editors Vic Barnett J. Stuart Hunter Adrian F.M. Smith Geoffrey S. Watson Ralph A. Bradley Joseph B. Kadane Stephen M. Stigler Nicholas I. Fisher David G. Kendall Jozef L. Teugels Optimal Design of Experiments Friedrich Pukelsheim, Universität Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany Optimal Design of Experiments presents the first complete theoretical development of optimal design for the linear model, a unified exposition that embraces a wide variety of design problems. It describes the statistical theory involved in designing experiments, and applies it to typical special cases. The design problems originating from statistics are solved using tools from linear algebra and convex analysis. The material is presented in a very clear, careful and organized way. Rather than assaulting traditional ways of thinking about optimal design, this book pulls together formerly separate entities to create a common framework for diverse design problems that share a common goal. Statisticians, mathematicians, engineers, and operations research specialists will find this book stimulating, challenging, and an asset to their work. 1993 Statistics for Spatial Data, Revised Edition Noel Cressie, Iowa State University, USA Designed for the scientific and engineering professional eager to exploit its enormous potential, Statistics for Spatial Data is a primer to the theory as well as the nuts-and-bolts of this influential technique. Focusing on the three areas of geostatistical data, lattice data, and point patterns, the book sheds light on the link between data and model, and reveals how spatial statistical models can be used to solve a host of problems in science and engineering. The previous edition was hailed by Mathematical Reviews as “an excellent book which…will become a basic reference”. Revised to reflect state-of-the-art developments, this edition also features many detailed examples, numerous illustrations, and over 1000 references. The first fully comprehensive introduction, Statistics for Spatial Data is an essential guide for professionals in biology, earth sciences, civil, electrical and agricultural engineering, geography, epidemiology, and ecology. 1993
Review:
For rich, subjectivist true believers only
Bernardo and Smith(BS)have written a book that assumes that Frank Ramsey, Bruno De Finetti,and Leonard Savage solved all of the major problems concerning the foundations of probability and decision theory in the period between 1931,the year Ramsey’s major essay on probability was published,and 1954,the year that Savage published his book.All that remains is a mopping up effort at minor,residual anomalies.The basic point made by BS is that all probabilities are precise,single number, point estimates or that they can be treated “as if” they were.Unfortunately,this is not the case.The subjectivist approach is applicable only in those situations where the purely deductive,mathematical laws of probability(the addition and multiplication rules for conjunction and disjunction)apply.This requires that a)there exists a complete sample space of all possible outcomes representing the choice problem before any probability is calculated;b)a complete preference ordering of all possible outcomes exists for the problem or c)a single,unique probability distribution is defined for the problem.Under these conditions,the probability calculus serves as a consistency and coherence check for the rational decision maker who is willing to bet on one side or another of all propositions.The subjectivist approach is a special theory with limited applicability.It is this failure to recognize that the subjective approach is a limiting case, that conflates the concepts of probability,logical probability,inductive probability,and degree of belief with mathematical probability, that is the source of much of the criticism of the subjectivist approach.There are many assertions made throughout the book that are highly dubious and/or unsupported.The rest of the review will be devoted to correcting these assertions.First,it is not the case that the Allais paradox choices are mistaken.It is strange to see it argued that such choices are similar to”…individuals(who)can often be shown to perform badly at deduction or long division”(BS,P.97).The real problem is that many/some decision makers have nonlinear probability preferences,as opposed to the linear probability preferences axiomatised by the subjectivists.The BS claim is similar to the claim made by many proponents of Euclidean geometry in the 18th and 19th centuries that non Euclidean geometries were erroneous and/or could not exist.Second,it is not the case that the Raiffa(1961) and Roberts(1963)replies to Ellsberg provide”…clear and convincing rejoinders to the Ellsberg criticisms”(BS,P.9

.Both Raiffa and Roberts,like Savage in his belated reply toAllais ,simply restructured and changed the problem on which they commented.Third,the claim that the Ellsberg problems and/or examples(the two color and three color urn ball problems)are”…optical or magical illusions…” makes no sense.Fourth,the claim that “The logical(emphasis added)view is entirely lacking in operational content.” (BS,p.100),has no support at all.It is impossible to even talk about scientific theories unless an underlying logical conceptualization of probability is already in place beforehand.Fifth,the claim that John Maynard Keynes changed his view in 1931 and accepted the primacy of the subjectivist interpretation of F.Ramsey is erroneous.Keynes accepted Ramsey’s dutch book argument claim only if the deductive,purely mathematical laws of probability(”…the calculus of probability…”) were completely operational.Keynes completely rejected Ramsey’s assertions that habits and memory alone were the only foundations for induction and analogy.Sixth,BS are completely and totally ignorant about Keynes’s establishment of the interval estimate approach to probability in this century.It is a widespread misbelief on the part of many economists,philosophers,psychologists,etc.,that only partial, ordinal rankings,that could be made only part of the time,represents the main outcome of Keynes’s 16 years of study of probability.Nothing could be further from the truth.In fact,this misbelief is due to the acceptance by most scholars of the conclusions arrived at in the horrible mess made of Keynes’s book by Ramsey in both his 1922 and 1926 reviews,respectively.Ramsey’s unsupported claims about Keynes’s strange nonnumerical probabilities and mysterious logical relations are just that,unsupported.Most Keynesian probabilities have an upper and a lower bound or limit. It is in chapters 15 and 17 of Keynes’s 1921 A Treatise on Probability(TP) that BS can find Keynes’s “approximation” approach worked out in great detail.A number of problems are worked out by Keynes on pp.161-163 and pp.186-194 of the TP.All of these problems can now be solved using easier integer-mixed integer linear programming techniques.Keynes’s approach is fully operational.Seventh,the claim that Keynes’s logical approach provides “…no operational guidance as to how to choose…”(BS,p.99)makes it crystal clear to this reviewer that BS have never read Keynes’s TP.It is a great tragedy that books can be written on probability by authors that are grossly ignorant of basic literature.
Review:
A complete introduction to classical Bayesian analysis
[1] It is an excellent book on the classical Bayesian theory. The first author is a famous mathematician, who held several international conferences on Bayesian statistics.
[2] Similar to Berger’s book, it is also built on Statistical Decision Theory. In my opinion, Berger’s is a little better.
[3] The part of Bayesian foundation is heavy, maybe a topos today. But in the bookshelf, we indeed need such work.
[4] Think about the thickness of the bibliography — the reference is awesome!
[5] The history of Bayesian statistics is well overviewed.
[6] To learn more about the Bayesian computation, you need some complement books, such as Liu’s, Tanner’s, Gelman’s, etc.
Review:
Nice but….
Really nice book, but a VERY expensive “bible” if you ask me. $300, what a joke.
Date: 2004-01-23 Rating: 5
Review:
The Standard First Text To Begin Studying Bayesian Methods
This is an extremely nice introduction to Bayesian statistical methods. It takes you from the very basics – even who Thomas Bayes was (who happens to be buried in Bunhill Fields cemetery in London with William Blake (Songs of Innocence and Experience, Jerusalem), Daniel Defoe (Robinson Crusoe), John Bunyan (Pilgrim’s Progress)).
Its chapters are divided into sections forming an Introduction, Foundations, Generalizations, Modeling, Inference, and Remodeling. There is also a section summarizing the basic formulae and alternative non-Bayesian approaches. A rich reference list, subject index, and author index are also provided.
If you are familiar with the math of undergraduate statistics you should not have a problem with the math notation in this book. This really is the standard text you find on most shelves of folks who are familiar with this subject. There are many books to read beyond this one, but this is a fine place to start
link
http://rapidshare.com/files/58737799...5s__MVsa_.djvu
مواقع النشر (المفضلة)